G+ November 2024 Market Update

GUMAS PLUS NYC REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

As we anticipate the impact of a new Trump administration, the future of housing policy and its influence on New York City remain uncertain. Trump’s proposals on housing, though often broad and ambiguous, suggest major shifts that could affect our city. Here’s what we may be facing:

What Will Change?
Trump’s past policies and Project 2025—a Heritage Foundation framework written with input from former HUD Secretary Ben Carson—suggest a return to an emphasis on deregulation, fewer housing vouchers, and prioritizing single-family homeownership over affordable, multifamily housing options. His past tax policies that limited SALT deductions at $10,000 heavily impacted New Yorkers, raising taxes in high-cost states like ours, and there’s a chance this cap could stay in place.

Programs at Risk
Key federal programs that NYC relies on could see cuts. Community Development Block Grants and Section 8 are particularly vulnerable, which might shift financial responsibility to the city or state. Changes to HUD’s housing-choice-voucher policies could also increase restrictions, especially impacting mixed-status households. There’s also a potential shift away from affordable multifamily developments in suburbs—a significant setback to meeting housing demands.

Housing Supply Challenges
Trump’s housing vision emphasizes single-family homeownership but lacks a clear plan to increase the much-needed housing supply, especially at affordable levels. This poses a challenge in NYC, where high-density housing is essential. With his support for high-end developments, affordable housing construction may suffer, and suburban regions could see stricter limitations against multifamily units.

Fair Housing Concerns
Fair housing might see reduced federal oversight, making it harder to confront local discrimination. While Biden’s administration has focused on transparency in segregation and housing disparities, Trump’s administration would likely reverse these efforts. Legal resources and support for affordable housing developments may decline, leaving states to shoulder more responsibilities.

Potential Silver Linings?
With an emphasis on decentralization, there may be increased delegation to local governments, allowing NYC to shape housing policies more directly. Reduced federal oversight may lessen bureaucratic delays, offering a chance for innovative housing solutions—though city and state agencies will need to step up to fill funding and regulatory gaps.

What’s Next?
The outcome remains to be seen, but NYC will likely face challenges in sustaining affordable housing programs and enforcing fair housing protections. As we monitor these developments, we’ll continue to keep you updated on the implications for NYC’s real estate landscape.